There are only seven rounds in the NFL Draft, so it's important for teams to make strong selections in each round. Picking first overall in the draft can easily make or break a franchise. Not only is there enormous pressure, but a team's first selection also sets the tone for their draft plan. A team who drafts a quarterback first overall may use their third round pick to draft a wide receiver, while a team who drafts a wide receiver fifth overall may opt to claim a "project" quarterback in the fourth round. Sure, one player will hear his name called when the Houston Texans make the first selection on May 8th, but not one of those potential draftees truly deserves the honor and prestige of being the first overall pick. There is no clear cut “WOW, CAN’T PASS HIM UP” choice. There are only “I see your stats, and I’m okay with them” candidates. Just Houston’s luck...

The Three Candidates

Jadeveon Clowney – Defensive End, South Carolina

There is no denying that Clowney is a physical monster. At 6’5” and 266 lbs, he runs a 4.53 40-yard dash, which is comparable to that of a running back. Texans defensive end J.J. Watt, similar in stature to Clowney, ran a 4.81 dash at his NFL Combine back in 2011. So, why isn’t he a no-doubt number one pick?

Two reasons: his motor, and the 3-4 defensive scheme.

J.J. Watt will go down as one of the greatest defensive players in NFL history, and not just because of his physical process: he’s a hard-worker and almost never takes a day off. You’ll never catch the former Wisconsin Badger snoozing during practice, game, or film study. It’s business in front and – well, business in the back.

The same cannot be said about Clowney, who has already had his motivation (or lack thereof) picked apart. During his final season at South Carolina, he only tallied three sacks. Compare that to the thirteen sacks he had in the previous year, and you have a cause for concern. He also missed practices and games, which shoot up even more red flags. It’s somewhat understandable if he didn’t want to injure himself and risk a free fall on the draft board, but that lack of production and effort will not fly in the NFL. You need to give 100%. There are also murmurs about Clowney already having an entourage, and worries that he may stop giving effort completely once he collects a fat paycheck.

When the Texans fired Wade Phillips as their defensive coordinator, a stale defensive scheme went with him. Phillips was a proponent of the 3-4 defense, but did little to adjust that defense when it became apparent that teams had figured it out. The Texans then hired Romeo Crennel, who uses a traditional two gap 3-4 defense. While Crennel has stated he will install multiple defenses depending on that week's opponent, he would still have to balance having Watt and Clowney on the same line. Although that is a defensive coordinator’s dream, it remains to be seen if Clowney would be a good fit in this system. Could he smoothly transition to play outside linebacker if needed?

The physical tools are certainly there when it comes to Clowney, but his intangibles and the possibility of a rough transition prevent him from being a slam dunk number one overall pick.

Johnny Manziel – Quarterback, Texas A&M

Boy, oh boy. Johnny Football. This kid’s ascent to the NFL has been hyped nearly as much as Clowney’s. Ever since his 2012 Heisman-winning season, Manziel has been almost synonymous with the NFL Draft. The excitement continued to build in 2013, and now every football fan from Kyle Field to FirstEnergy Stadium can’t wait to see where the electric scrambler from TAMU begins his professional career.

Two red flags immediately stand out when dissecting Manziel: his size and style of play.

At this year’s Combine, Manziel measured in at 5’11” ¾ and 207 lbs. Undersized quarterbacks have had success in the NFL, but their styles of play are different than Manziel’s. He’s very fast (ran a 4.68 dash), so more often than not, he scrambles and maneuvers his way around the field in order to make a play. That’s all good and well for college football, but with his size, he will be destroyed in the NFL trying to run around like a chicken with its head cut off. He’ll need to show NFL coaches and executives that he has improved tenfold as a pocket passer before draft day.

Manziel’s off-field activities have raised concerns amongst NFL teams, and these concerns are justified. Yes, he’s 21 years old and should be allowed to have fun in his life. He’s also a 21 year old who is going to be thrown into the NFL fire immediately, and it will now REALLY be his job to get the win. He can’t stay out every night partying when he has games to prepare for. He can, however, profit off his own name now. Take that, NCAA!

The Texans would make many football fans in the state of Texas happy by drafting the homegrown Johnny Football, and he is extremely talented, but he’s no Andrew Luck. He’s the definition of a boom or bust prospect, which means he is no lock to have his name called first this year. It is virtually guaranteed, though, that he won’t fall all the way to the Dallas Cowboys at #16 overall.

Teddy Bridgewater – Quarterback, Louisville

That sound of glass shattering you just heard is Teddy Bridgewater’s draft stock. The ex-Louisville signal caller had been referred to by experts and sportswriters alike as the best and most NFL-ready quarterback in this year’s draft class, until the Combine and his Pro Day came around.

Up until the Combine, most of the knocks on Bridgewater had been his size and the level of competition he faced in the AAC. Neither concern was unfounded, but more questions immediately popped up at the Combine. After measuring in at 6’2” 1/8 and 214 lbs with a 9 ¼” hand size, Bridgewater refused to run a 40-yard dash and did not participate in all of the competitive drills, including passing drills. He claimed he was saving himself for his Pro Day.

Unfortunately for Bridgewater, he underwhelmed at his Pro Day as well. Opting to throw without a glove, many of his throws to his own receivers were poor and hit the ground more often than not. He also decided against a second attempt at a 40-yard dash after running an unofficial 4.78 on his first attempt. It is extremely hard to fail at your Pro Day in such a scripted, controlled environment, but Teddy Bridgewater did just that.

Bridgewater’s fall on the draft boards serves as a warning to all teams in the draft, not just the Texans: just because a player is heralded as the next big thing, doesn’t mean he WILL be the next big thing. There are no risk-free picks to choose from this year at number one overall; no one who can definitively be regarded as a franchise-changer. Even when it turns out there is a franchise-changer in a draft pool, teams still make the wrong pick. Isn’t that right, San Diego?