The 66th Annual Grammy Awards take place this Sunday, February 4, in Los Angeles, and as always, much of the pre-show chatter had centered on the “big four” categories: Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Album of the Year, and Best New Artist. On Monday morning, everyone will be talking and arguing about these particular category winners, and large segments of the listening public will blast Grammy voters for being horribly out of touch and getting it completely wrong. Such is the yearly tradition.
Here at Genius, we have no special insights into how Grammy voters think. But we can predict who should win on Sunday night based on Genius pageview data. Read on to see who’d be taking home gramophone statuettes if the winners were determined purely by popularity on this website.
Record of the Year
This category is all about the recording of a song, and Grammys go to the artists, producers, and engineers. Here are the nominees:
“Worship,” Jon Batiste
“Not Strong Enough,” boygenius
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus
“What Was I Made For?” Billie Eilish
“On My Mama,” Victoria Monét
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo
“Ant-Hero,” Taylor Swift
“Kill Bill,” SZA
According to Genius data, the Grammy should go to SZA, who has amassed 2.5M pageviews with her song about how she might kill her ex, even if it’s not the best idea. SZA narrowly edges out a scorned Olivia Rodrigo (2.4M), a self-effacing Taylor Swift (1.9M), and a self-empowered Miley Cyrus (1.9M), the only other three in the category with more than a million views on Genius.
Album of the Year
This one’s pretty self-explanatory. We’re talking cohesive bodies of work, and the Grammys go to artists, songwriters, producers, and engineers. The nominees are:
World Music Radio, Jon Batiste
the record, boygenius
Endless Summer Vacation, Miley Cyrus
Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd, Lana Del Rey
The Age of Pleasure, Janelle Monet
GUTS, Olivia Rodrigo
Midnights, Taylor Swift
SOS, SZA
While SZA topped Taylor in Record of the Year, there’s no besting Swizzy here. Midnights has racked up a remarkable 15.5M pageviews since its release, and that’s enough to beat SOS (13.9M) and GUTS (11.6M), its two closest competitors. In this category, there are three other albums that have done a million or better pageviews on Genius: the record (2.2M), Endless Summer Vacation (3.2M), and Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd (6.8M). As with Record of the Year, it’s worth noting that the nominees in this category are almost all women—Jon Batiste is the lone male in the mix.
Song of the Year
This award honors songwriters. It’s about lyrics and melody—the composition, not the recording. Here are the nominees:
“A&W,” Lana Del Rey (Songwriters: Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey, Sam Dew)
“Anti-Hero,” Taylor Swift (Songwriters: Jack Antonoff, Taylor Swift)
“Butterfly,” Jon Batiste (Songwriters Jon Batiste, Dan Wilson)
“Dance The Night,” Dua Lipa (Songwriters: Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt)
“Flowers,” Miley Cyrus (Songwriters: Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein, Michael Pollack)
“Kill Bill,” SZA (Songwriters: Rob Bisel, Carter Lang, Solána Rowe)
“Vampire,” Olivia Rodrigo (Songwriters: Daniel Nigro, Olivia Rodrigo)
“What Was I Made For?” Billie Eilish (Songwriters: Billie Eilish O'Connell, Finneas O'Connell)
This category once again pits SZA against Taylor, O-Rod, and Miley, and by virtue of Genius pageviews, SZA earns another victory. At a not-so-distant fifth, right behind the aforementioned four ladies, it’s Lana Del Rey with “A&W,” her complex look at sex, drugs, and public perceptions of women, with 1.3M pageviews.
Best New Artist
According to the Grammys, the Best New Artist prize “recognizes an artist whose eligibility-year release(s) achieved a breakthrough into the public consciousness and notably impacted the musical landscape.” Here are the contenders:
Gracie Abrams
Fred again..
Ice Spice
Jelly Roll
Coco Jones
Noah Kahan
Victoria Monét
The War and Treaty
This year’s field is pretty diverse in terms of genre, as pop, electronic, R&B, folk, country-rap, Americana, and hip-hop newcomers vie for the prize. Based on Genius data, singer-songwriter Noah Kahan, who’s scored big with singles like “Stick Season” and “Dial Drunk,” should take home the award. He’s amassed 3.8M pageviews over the course of his career, which puts him well ahead of pop riser Grace Abrams (2.7M) and drill-pop sensation Ice Spice (2.5M). Rounding out the Top 5 are Jelly Roll (1.6M) and Victoria Monét (1.3M).
